CAVIAR CYCLE — PLAYBOOK
A Framework for Every
Phase of the Market.
Phase of the Market.
Most traders react to price. The Caviar Cycle Playbook gives you a structured framework to anticipate regime shifts, identify sector rotation, and position ahead of the move — not after it.
"Price leads. Ratios bridge. Macro confirms."
EXPANSION
Risk-on growth leadership. Real assets awaken, breadth builds, earnings drive. 6 phases from early-cycle signals to late-cycle de-risk.
PHASES A → F
STAGFLATION
Inflation shock with slowing growth. Commodities lead, equities compress, real assets outperform financial assets.
PHASES A → F
DEFLATION
Risk-off capital preservation. Treasuries, gold, and defensives lead as credit tightens and growth expectations collapse.
PHASES A → F
RECOVERY / REFLATION
Cycle reset. Beaten-down assets recover, liquidity returns, and early-cycle positioning begins building momentum.
PHASES A → F
WHAT EACH PHASE GIVES YOU
WATCH FOR SIGNALS
Specific ratio pairs and price signals that confirm which phase is active — so you know exactly what to monitor.
MACRO CONFIRMATION
Macro data points — PMI, yields, spreads, payrolls — mapped to each phase so you can confirm what the market is pricing.
24 DISTINCT PHASES
4 regimes × 6 phases each. Every phase has its own rules, signals, and playbook — no two phases are treated the same.
FULL PLAYBOOK ACCESS
The complete Caviar Cycle Playbook — all 4 regimes, all 24 phases, every signal and macro confirmation — is available exclusively to Caviar subscribers.