CAVIAR CYCLE // MACRO REGIME ENGINE
Conditional
Reflation Structure
MACRO REGIME READ PRIMARY REGIME → CONDITIONAL REFLATION (lingering stagflationary impulse, fragile) Growth-led, not broad reflation. AI + semis dominate leadership. KEY DRIVERS: • QQQ:SPY + SMH:SPY strength → concentrated growth leadership • XLK:XLP breakout → defensive rotation out • HYG:LQD + HYG:IEF → credit risk-on confirmation • TIP:TLT + DBC:SPY → inflation still persistent • XLE weakness → energy peak / stabilizing phase • UUP neutral → FX not driving regime STRUCTURE: → Narrow leadership, weak breadth → Inflation still embedded → Credit stable → Liquidity present but selective RISK CONDITION: → Break = oil re-acceleration OR breadth deterioration
Cross-asset ratio compression indicates a reflationary environment, but participation remains concentrated in AI and semiconductor leadership. This is a conditional phase of reflation with unresolved inflation pressure and narrow breadth.
CYCLE ALIGNED CAVIAR CRAZY SWING SCAN RESULTS
TIER 1 — CORE EXPOSURE (AI / SEMIS LEAD)
Primary beneficiaries of conditional reflation. Structural leadership concentration in high-beta tech.
AVGO · AMD · LRCX · KLAC · AMAT · MPWR · TER · ONTO · MRVL · COHR · CIEN · LITE · SNPS · QCOM · NVDA · AAPL
TIER 2 — ROTATIONAL CONFIRMATION
Cyclicals + financials requiring sustained breadth expansion to confirm regime continuation.
PWR · ROK · CRS · MTZ · ITT · C · BK · STT · XPO · FTI · TDW · FLY · CAVA · JHG · DELL · GLW · WDC
TIER 3 — SPECULATIVE / LIQUIDITY SENSITIVE
High variance assets requiring full reflation or liquidity expansion to sustain momentum.
SRPT · MRNA · BBIO · NIO · ROKU · PLUG · LUNR · WULF · HUT · ALB · SQM · MP · NKTR · NKLA · QS · TLRY