CAVIAR CYCLE // MACRO REGIME ENGINE
Conditional
Reflation Structure
MACRO REGIME READ PRIMARY REGIME → GROWTH-LED RECOVERY (R-B → R-D, narrowing/blending) Liquidity-driven recovery with increasingly concentrated leadership. Not broad reflation — participation is deteriorating beneath the surface. KEY DRIVERS: • QQQ:SPY + SMH:SPY acceleration → dominant growth / semi leadership • XLK:XLP expansion → aggressive risk-on vs defensives • HYG:IEF + LQD:TLT strength → credit remains open / supportive • XLI:XLU elevated → cyclical bias intact but not expanding • XLE:SPY + XLE:USO weakness → energy lagging, no inflation acceleration • GLD:SPY + XLP/XLU weakness → no defensive rotation STRUCTURE: → Narrow leadership (tech / semis dominate) → Breadth deterioration (RSP below 13/50) → Credit strong, liquidity intact → Cyclicals not confirming expansion RISK CONDITION: → Further breadth deterioration OR credit rollover → Oil / energy spike driven by Iran conflict escalation → XLE / USO sharp relative reversal higher
Cross-asset ratio compression indicates a reflationary environment, but participation remains concentrated in AI and semiconductor leadership. This is a conditional phase of reflation with unresolved inflation pressure and narrow breadth.
CYCLE ALIGNED CAVIAR CRAZY SWING SCAN RESULTS
DEPLOYMENT DASH PRIMARY STATE → ACTIVE (POST-RESET / NEUTRALIZED EXTENSION) POSITIONING: • QQQ ~+1.9% vs 13MA • SPY ~+1.0% vs 13MA • IWM ~+1.0% vs 13MA • VIX stabilizing after spike, trend intact → Extension reset achieved via price + time → Market transitioned from overextended → deployable range ACTION: DEPLOY: • Controlled deployment active • Tier 1 pullbacks = primary focus • Scale entries (no full-size immediately) TACTICAL STRUCTURE: • Initial entries near 13MA (starter size) • Add on hold + stabilization • Final adds on continuation / trend resumption AVOID: • Chasing extended names (>3–4% from 13MA) • Broken structure (failed 13MA reclaim setups) • Broad basket deployment without confirmation DEPLOY (VALID TRIGGERS ONLY): • Pullback into rising 13MA • Higher low formation above 13MA • 1–3 day consolidation near support • Continued leadership strength (SMH / XLK vs SPY) RISK TRIGGERS: • Loss of 13MA across indices (QQQ / SPY / IWM) • Continued RSP weakness (breadth deterioration) • Credit rollover (HYG breakdown) • Sustained yield expansion (TNX continuation higher) • Oil spike continuation driving macro instability → If triggered: • Deployment pauses • Reduce exposure / avoid adds • Expect chop or deeper reset phase
TIER 1 — CORE EXPOSURE (AI / SEMIS LEAD)
Primary beneficiaries of conditional reflation. Structural leadership concentration in high-beta tech.
AVGO · AMD · LRCX · KLAC · AMAT · MPWR · TER · ONTO · MRVL · COHR · CIEN · LITE · SNPS · QCOM · NVDA · AAPL
TIER 2 — ROTATIONAL CONFIRMATION
Cyclicals + financials requiring sustained breadth expansion to confirm regime continuation.
PWR · ROK · CRS · MTZ · ITT · C · BK · STT · XPO · FTI · TDW · FLY · CAVA · JHG · DELL · GLW · WDC
TIER 3 — SPECULATIVE / LIQUIDITY SENSITIVE
High variance assets requiring full reflation or liquidity expansion to sustain momentum.
SRPT · MRNA · BBIO · NIO · ROKU · PLUG · LUNR · WULF · HUT · ALB · SQM · MP · NKTR · NKLA · QS · TLRY