MACRO REGIME READ PRIMARY REGIME → CONDITIONAL REFLATION (lingering stagflationary impulse, fragile) Growth-led, not broad reflation. AI + semis dominate leadership. KEY DRIVERS: • QQQ:SPY + SMH:SPY strength → concentrated growth leadership • XLK:XLP breakout → defensive rotation out • HYG:LQD + HYG:IEF → credit risk-on confirmation • TIP:TLT + DBC:SPY → inflation still persistent • XLE weakness → energy peak / stabilizing phase • UUP neutral → FX not driving regime STRUCTURE: → Narrow leadership, weak breadth → Inflation still embedded → Credit stable → Liquidity present but selective RISK CONDITION: → Break = oil re-acceleration OR breadth deterioration