How to understand the Caviar Dashboard.
This guide explains what each section is measuring, how the individual systems interact, and how to interpret the Dashboard as a whole.
One market. Multiple horizons.
Caviar is a dynamic model that blends multiple independent systems and time horizons together to create a visualization of current market conditions.
Instead of relying on a single indicator, the framework combines macro variables, price trend, relative strength, market breadth, credit, volatility, growth leadership, liquidity, trajectory, regime memory and forward-transition logic.
These components are intentionally allowed to disagree. A structural regime can remain intact while tactical conditions deteriorate. Relative-strength leadership can improve while breadth weakens. A forward regime can begin emerging before the current regime has formally changed.
The objective is not to force every market signal into one label. The objective is to understand what is happening now, what is changing underneath the surface, and how much portfolio risk the total evidence currently justifies.
Organizes market evidence into a decision framework.
- Identifies structural and tactical market regimes.
- Measures whether market internals confirm or conflict with the regime thesis.
- Tracks which areas of the market are gaining or losing relative leadership.
- Detects potential forward regime transitions before they are fully established.
- Converts the combined evidence into a risk and deployment range.
- Uses saved model history to reduce excessive day-to-day regime whipsaw.
It is not a mechanical prediction or trading system.
- It does not guarantee future market direction or returns.
- It does not attempt to call exact tops or bottoms.
- It does not require portfolios to mechanically match every deployment percentage.
- A forward probability is not a guarantee that the regime will occur.
- A structural regime does not mean every asset associated with that regime must be owned.
- Model disagreement does not automatically mean one component is wrong.
The Dashboard should be read as a hierarchy of evidence, not as a collection of isolated signals. Structural conditions describe the established environment. Tactical conditions describe the current tape. Forward conditions describe where evidence may be moving. Deployment determines how much risk that total evidence has earned.
Reading the model from top to bottom.
Section 01 is the primary read. Sections 02–13 progressively expose the underlying evidence, risk framework, market confirmation and model history behind that top-level interpretation.
Caviar Regime Read
This is the primary output of the Dashboard and should normally be the first section you read. It separates the market into four questions: what has been established, what is happening now, what may be developing next, and how much risk the evidence currently supports.
What regime has established persistence?
Structural represents the model's longer-horizon regime state. It incorporates saved model history and regime persistence rather than reacting only to the latest session. Think of it as the incumbent market environment.
What is the market doing right now?
Tactical focuses on the current tape. It incorporates short-term trend, breadth, volatility, credit behavior and leadership changes to determine whether conditions are improving, deteriorating or unresolved.
Where is the evidence beginning to move?
Forward identifies potential regime transitions before they become fully established. It combines current evidence, model memory, transition momentum and the separate Growth / Inflation model.
How much risk has the evidence earned?
Deployment converts the current route and risk conditions into a usable exposure range and saved target. It answers how aggressive or defensive the portfolio environment currently warrants being.
The fast tactical strip shows whether the current Tactical regime is new, building persistence or already established. Streak counts consecutive saved runs in the same tactical family, Fast Support measures short-horizon confirmation, and Recent Presence shows how often that family has appeared in the latest saved window. This helps distinguish a one-run tactical shift from a move that is beginning to persist.
The model's memory function should be treated as a risk-sizing guide, not a hard trading command. If the saved target rises, the model is signaling that conditions have earned additional risk. If it falls, the model is signaling that risk should be reduced. This does not mean a portfolio must be mechanically rebalanced to the exact percentage every time the model changes. Memory exists to create continuity and reduce overreaction to one unusually strong or weak session.
These four outputs can legitimately disagree. Structural may still identify Real-Asset leadership, Tactical may read Chop / No Edge, Forward may detect rising Risk-Off probability, and Deployment may still permit moderate exposure. Those are not four contradictory answers. They are four different horizons describing the same market.
Risk / Deployment
The Risk / Deployment section translates the different regime systems into portfolio exposure. The individual rows are not all independent portfolio recommendations. They show how different components of the framework are viewing risk before those signals are reconciled into the final deployment range.
The model can identify an attractive portfolio route while still restricting exposure. For example, growth leadership may be improving, but weak breadth, rising volatility or deteriorating credit can prevent the model from treating that leadership as a full risk-on environment. The route tells us what is working. The risk overlay determines how aggressively it should be expressed.
Current Leadership Matrix
The Current Leadership Matrix uses Relative Rotation Graph behavior to identify which assets, sectors and market sleeves are gaining or losing strength relative to the benchmark. The most important information is not only where an asset sits, but the direction in which its relative strength is moving.
LEADING
Relative strength and relative momentum are both strong. These are established leaders, although a leader rotating southeast can still be losing momentum.
IMPROVING
Relative momentum is strengthening and the asset is attempting to rotate toward leadership. This area often identifies developing opportunities before they become established leaders.
WEAKENING
Relative strength remains elevated, but momentum is deteriorating. These assets may still outperform, but leadership is losing force.
LAGGING
Relative strength and/or momentum remain weak. A northwest rotation can signal early repair, while continued southwest behavior reflects persistent weakness.
Sector Regime Fit & Market State
This section separates two questions that should not be confused: what should fit the current regime and what is actually working in price. The Core Sector Map compares major indexes and the 11 primary sectors across regime fit, live RRG state and equal-weight confirmation.
Regime Fit
Shows whether a sector or index is structurally aligned with the current Structural, Tactical and Forward regime reads. HIGH means the expression fits the regime, NEUTRAL means the relationship is mixed or not central, and OPPOSED means the expression runs against the regime thesis.
Market State
Comes from the primary RRG read and describes what the instrument is doing now. WORKING, TURNING, FADING and WEAK summarize the instrument's quadrant, direction and momentum rather than its theoretical regime fit.
Equal-Weight Pair
The equal-weight counterpart checks whether strength in a cap-weighted index or sector is being confirmed beneath the largest constituents. Examples include QQQ / QQQE, XLK / RSPT and DIA / EDOW.
Double Confirmation
Summarizes whether the primary instrument and its equal-weight partner tell the same story. Confirmed leadership is broader evidence; cap-weight-only leadership signals concentration; confirmed lagging or weakening shows weakness is broad rather than isolated.
Indexes + 11 Sectors
SPY / RSP, QQQ / QQQE and DIA / EDOW sit above the 11 major sectors. These core rows receive the full Regime Fit + Market State + paired breadth treatment. SPY remains the RRG benchmark.
Style / Industry / Duration
Focused sleeves such as small caps, semiconductors, software, homebuilders, Treasuries and other factors remain intentionally simpler. They show live RRG Market State without forcing every secondary sleeve into a macro-regime-fit bucket.
These columns can disagree without creating an error. A sector can have HIGH regime fit but still be WEAK in the live market, or have a neutral / opposed regime relationship while its relative strength is temporarily improving. Regime Fit is the model's expected alignment; Market State is the market's current expression.
Transition / Scenario Matrix
The Scenario Matrix frames the current environment into three conditional paths. These are not forecasts. They define the evidence required for the market interpretation to improve, remain intact, or deteriorate.
What would justify a more constructive regime?
Lists the improvements the model would need to see before increasing confidence or permitting broader risk — for example improving credit, falling volatility, stronger breadth or a stronger confirmation stack.
What evidence currently has the highest support?
Describes the path most consistent with the current model evidence and the conditions that would keep that interpretation intact.
What would invalidate the current constructive case?
Defines the deterioration required to move toward a more defensive interpretation, including possible failures in trend, credit, leadership or breadth.
The Scenario Matrix should be read as an if / then roadmap. It helps identify what evidence must change before the model should change its posture. It does not independently override the Dashboard's current risk and deployment framework.
Regime State Matrix
The Regime State Matrix is the Dashboard's audit table. Section 01 gives the answer first. Section 06 exposes the major components underneath that answer and shows whether each layer is confirming, weakening or conflicting with the broader interpretation.
| Layer | What It Represents | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Structural Memory Regime | Established regime persistence across saved runs. | Provides the long-horizon incumbent regime. |
| Growth / Inflation Impulse | Forward macro backdrop from the separate Growth / Inflation model. | Provides an independent macro transition prior. |
| Current Macro Read | Current regime identified from the Caviar macro variables. | Shows what the systematic macro layer currently sees. |
| RRG Market Expression | Relative-strength regime detected by the leadership model. | Shows how the market is expressing itself in price. |
| Tactical Trajectory | Direction of travel across the recent model window. | Shows whether conditions are improving or deteriorating. |
| Credit Condition | Relative credit, rate-adjusted HY behavior and direct OAS evidence. | Separates rate-driven HYG pressure from material credit deterioration before credit is allowed to veto risk. |
| Volatility Condition | VIX behavior relative to trend. | Acts as a major risk-permission or risk-cap signal. |
| Breadth Condition | Participation beneath headline indices. | Distinguishes broad strength from narrow concentration. |
| Growth Leadership | Relative performance of growth, technology and semiconductors. | Confirms or weakens tactical growth regimes. |
| Dollar / Liquidity | Dollar trend and liquidity pressure. | Identifies whether liquidity is helping or restricting risk. |
| Rate / Inflation Pressure | Interest-rate and commodity pressure. | Helps confirm inflation-sensitive and real-asset environments. |
Market Confirmation Heatmap
The Heatmap separates current state from direction of travel. Distance from the 13-day moving average shows where a variable sits now. The 1-day, 3-day and 5-day changes show whether that condition is strengthening or deteriorating.
Distance from 13MA
Positive distance generally means the variable is above its tactical trend. Negative distance means it is below trend.
1-Day Delta
Shows the most recent change in distance from trend and captures immediate acceleration or deterioration.
3-Day Delta
Helps distinguish one-day noise from a developing short-term shift in the market's trajectory.
5-Day Delta
Provides a broader tactical window and shows whether the recent trend improvement or deterioration is becoming persistent.
A variable can still be above its 13MA while deteriorating, or remain below its 13MA while rapidly repairing. The Heatmap is designed to make that distinction visible. The level tells you where the market is. The deltas tell you where it is moving. Relative-credit rows such as HYG:IEF and HYG:LQD are directional confirmation signals and should be read alongside the separate rate-adjusted HY / OAS credit condition rather than as standalone credit-stress vetoes.
Growth / Inflation Regimes
This section is sourced from a separate Growth / Inflation model. It evaluates the direction and strength of macro growth and inflation conditions and converts them into four familiar macro regimes. The result acts as a forward macro prior inside the broader Caviar transition framework.
Growth supportive / inflation easing
A disinflationary expansion environment where growth remains constructive while inflation pressure moderates.
Growth accelerating / inflation firming
A cyclical expansion environment where stronger growth is accompanied by increasing inflation pressure.
Growth weakening / inflation elevated
A difficult regime where inflation remains persistent even as the growth backdrop deteriorates.
Growth weakening / inflation easing
A defensive slowdown environment where growth pressure deteriorates while inflation falls.
Growth / Inflation weights are not the same as the current Caviar regime and do not directly set portfolio exposure. They provide an independent macro prior that feeds the forward transition system. A 30% Goldilocks weight does not mean the model is saying there is a 30% chance the market rises.
The exact macro data inputs used by the separate Growth / Inflation model will be documented here as the guide is finalized.
Memory Regime Trend
The Memory Regime section tracks the model's structural regime persistence and applies the Beluga trend framework to each regime's Memory Support series. This helps determine whether support for the incumbent regime is strengthening or weakening through time.
Saved Runs
Each saved model run becomes part of the model's historical state rather than being treated as an isolated daily observation.
Memory Support
The model measures how consistently each regime has been supported across recent saved observations.
Beluga Trend
Beluga evaluates the trend of the Memory Support series to identify whether support for that regime is strengthening or weakening.
Structural Handoff
A challenger must meet the model's persistence and handoff conditions before replacing the confirmed incumbent regime.
A BULLISH Beluga trend means support for that specific regime is strengthening. A BEARISH Beluga trend means support for that regime is weakening. The label describes the direction of the regime's Memory Support series, not whether the overall stock market itself is bullish or bearish.
The structural regime does not automatically change because another regime temporarily scores higher on a single run. The handoff process is deliberately sticky so that the structural layer reflects persistent regime change rather than daily noise.
Memory Support Leaderboard
The Memory Support Leaderboard ranks the model's full regime universe by the strength of its saved historical support. It is essentially the scoreboard for the structural memory layer.
| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Memory Support | Persistence score measuring how consistently the regime has been supported across saved model runs. |
| Handoff Trend | Structural trend reference used when evaluating whether an incumbent is strengthening or vulnerable to replacement. |
| Beluga Pivot | Adaptive trend reference applied to the regime's Memory Support series. |
| Momentum | Direction and magnitude of recent movement in the regime's support trend. |
| Beluga Trend | Whether support for that regime is currently strengthening or weakening relative to its adaptive trend. |
| Confirmed | Indicates whether that regime currently holds confirmed structural-incumbent status. |
A Memory Support score of 80 does not mean there is an 80% probability that the regime will occur. It is a persistence measure derived from saved model history. Forward Probability is a separate calculation and should not be confused with Memory Support.
Forward Regime Matrix
The Forward Regime Matrix ranks potential future regimes using a separate transition framework. It is designed to detect where the evidence is moving before a new regime has necessarily become the confirmed structural state.
How strongly today's observable market conditions support each potential regime.
How much structural support each regime has accumulated across saved model history.
Whether evidence for the regime is accelerating, deteriorating or remaining stable.
The independent Growth / Inflation prior imported into the forward transition framework.
Forward Probability is a relative heuristic ranking of transition evidence. A regime can have the highest forward probability while still being classified only as Emerging because the model has not yet seen enough confirmation or persistence for a full regime transition.
Regime Confirmation Stack
The Confirmation Stack combines four separate regime votes into one agreement score. The purpose is to distinguish a regime that is supported by several independent systems from one being driven by only a single layer.
Caviar Framework View
The discretionary current-regime thesis selected from the broader Caviar framework.
Systematic Macro Read
The regime identified from the model's current macro and cross-asset variables.
Market Expression + Breadth
The regime being expressed through RRG leadership after checking the paired cap-weight / equal-weight confirmation layer.
Direction of Travel
The regime implied by the model's recent multi-day improvement or deterioration pattern.
A 2/4 stack does not mean two systems are correct and two are wrong. It means the market itself is producing conflicting information across the model's independent layers. That uncertainty should generally be reflected in portfolio sizing and conviction.
Regime History Strip
The History Strip shows how the model has evolved across previous saved runs, including the active Route, Tactical regime, Trajectory, risk score, deployment target and Emerging regime. It provides context for whether the current read is persisting or rotating inside an unstable market environment.
Measures how frequently the model's major regime components have been changing across recent saved history. High instability means the market has been rotating, conflicting or failing to maintain a persistent state.
Represents the inverse concept: how consistently the model's regime state has persisted through time. Higher persistence generally indicates a more stable market environment.
Shows the current tactical family, its consecutive-run streak and whether the move is still Emerging or has accumulated enough saved confirmation to be treated as more persistent.
Fast Support measures near-term confirmation for the current tactical family, while Recent Presence shows how often that family has appeared in the latest saved runs.
The concepts worth remembering.
The Dashboard contains a large amount of information, but most of the framework becomes easier to understand once these distinctions are clear.
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Caviar Group model outputs, regime classifications, forward probabilities, risk scores, deployment ranges, scenarios and examples are analytical tools and should not be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.