CAVIAR CYCLE
REGIME MATRIX
HOW TO READ THIS PAGEStructural = established regime / persistenceTactical = near-term market conditionForward = transition risk, not the current regimeDeployment = exposure earned by the combined evidence
01
Caviar Regime Read
— the answer first; model detail belowSTRUCTURAL · WEEKS / MONTHS
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership
WEAKENING69.3 support
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership remains the confirmed memory regime, but support fell to 69.3 and remains below its 75.0 handoff trend. Stagflation / Inflation Shock is now the strongest challenger at 71.7, leading the incumbent by 2.4 points without a confirmed handoff.
TACTICAL · DAYS / WEEKS
Chop / No Edge
MIXED / UNRESOLVEDTrajectory −2.7 · 57.4 conf
The tape repaired sharply from 09/10 but did not clear the full risk stack. QQQ and MTUM are back above 13MA and VIX collapsed toward trend, while SPY and IWM remain below 13MA, relative breadth is still weak, the dollar moved just above trend, and absolute credit remains deteriorating.
FORWARD · TRANSITION RISK
Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
EMERGING52.3%
The memory-aware roadmap strongly favors Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair at 52.3%, with Mega-Cap Growth / AI a distant second at 10.8%. This is a forward transition signal, not a current all-clear while credit and breadth remain unresolved.
DEPLOYMENT · PORTFOLIO POSTURE
0–23% Saved Band
UPGRADE PENDINGRisk score 29.0
Raw permission improved to 0–35%, but the saved 09/11 memory state remains 0–23%. The live engine previews a 0–28% memory band and a 28% six-ETF starter portfolio, but the persisted ceiling has not yet stepped up that far.
DESK INTERPRETATION
The market staged a meaningful risk repair after the 09/10 flush: QQQ recovered its 13MA, MTUM strengthened to +1.33% above trend, VIX compressed from +15.8% to roughly +3.0%, and member breadth improved to 67.4% advancers. But the repair is still incomplete. SPY remains below 13MA, IWM is −1.83% below trend, relative breadth remains weak, UUP moved just above 13MA, and the absolute-credit layer remains DETERIORATING. Macro therefore still selects Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress at 73 confidence, while the trajectory has moved back to Chop / No Edge. RRG continues to show Mega-Cap Growth / AI Leadership, with XLK/XLC/QQQ all Leading. Net: conditions are better than yesterday, but this is still a low-confirmation repair inside a capped risk regime—not a clean broad-beta reset.
Why the models disagree: RRG and the forward roadmap are detecting improving growth leadership, while macro is still blocked by absolute credit, SPY, the dollar and weak relative breadth. The stack is only 1/4, so the active route remains the high-confidence macro fallback rather than a consensus regime.
02
Risk / Deployment
— what the evidence actually earnsMANUAL EXPOSURE
40–70%
MACRO EXPOSURE (PASTED + ABS CREDIT)
0–35%
ACTIVE ROUTE EXPOSURE
0–35%
RRG EXPOSURE
75–100%
MACRO RISK OVERLAY
0–35%
RAW FINAL CAP
0–35%
MEMORY-ADJUSTED BAND
0–23%
Exposure posture: UPGRADE PENDING — risk capacity improved to 29/100 and the raw cap widened to 0–35%, but the saved 09/11 memory band remains 0–23%. The live engine preview would allow 0–28% on another save if conditions hold.
RISK CAPS
- Composite credit state remains DETERIORATING: HYG absolute is below 13MA and HY OAS remains above its 13MA
- VIX is still +3.0% above 13MA despite a sharp one-day compression
- UUP moved marginally above 13MA, creating a short-term dollar headwind
- SPY remains −0.26% below 13MA
- IWM remains −1.83% below 13MA and all three relative-breadth ratios remain below trend
RISK SUPPORTS
- Member breadth quality improved to 67.4% advancers
- QQQ recovered slightly above 13MA
- MTUM strengthened to +1.33% above 13MA
- QQQ:SPY, SMH:SPY and XLK:SPY all remain above 13MA
- Relative credit still confirms: HYG:IEF +0.649 and HYG:LQD +0.454 versus 13MA
29.0
RISK SCORE / 100
Saved ceiling: 23%
Active routing remains Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress by macro fallback. Macro confidence eased to 73 as volatility and price repaired, but absolute credit remains weak and the stack is only 1/4. The live constructor proposes 28% target ETF exposure across six defensive/hedging starters, while the saved memory state still limits the persisted ceiling to 23%.
Live constructor: 28% PROPOSED ETF EXPOSURE · 71.8% cash / SGOV / TFLO · IEF, TLT, XLU, SGOV, SH and TFLO qualify as starter/watch positions.
03
Current Leadership Matrix
— RRG quadrant scanLEADING
XLK8 · NE
XLC8 · NE
QQQ8 · NE
XOP6 · SW
XLE6 · SW
RSPG6 · SW
IMPROVING
IWF6 · NE
SMH6 · NE
MTUM6 · NE
XRT6 · NE
TLT4 · SW
XLU4 · SW
WEAKENING
BETE2 · SW
RSPH2 · SW
RSPC2 · SW
LAGGING
SPHB2 · NE
RSPT2 · NE
XLI2 · NE
QUAL1 · NW
XLY1 · NW
IWP1 · NW
Mega-cap growth leadership strengthened further: XLK, XLC and QQQ are all Leading/NE, while SMH and MTUM remain Improving/NE. The broad market is not confirming that strength yet—equal-weight technology is still Lagging despite improving momentum, and most cyclical/breadth sleeves remain below the RRG centerline.
| Ticker | Sleeve | Score | Action | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEF | Defensive / Duration | 65.5 | Starter / watch | Mixed single RRG |
| TLT | Defensive / Duration | 65.5 | Starter / watch | Mixed single RRG |
| XLU | Defensive / Utilities | 65.5 | Starter / watch | Mixed / transition |
| SGOV | Cash / Treasury | 62.5 | Starter / watch | Mixed single RRG |
| SH | Inverse Hedge / Risk Control | 62.5 | Starter / watch | Mixed single RRG |
| TFLO | Cash / Floating-Rate Treasury | 62.5 | Starter / watch | Mixed single RRG |
| SPLV | Defensive / Low Volatility | 59.2 | Watch only | Mixed single RRG |
| XLK | Technology / Mega-Cap Growth | 56.3 | Watch only | Narrow cap-weight leadership |
| GLD | Precious Metals / Real Assets | 56.2 | Watch only | Mixed single RRG |
| UUP | Dollar / Liquidity | 56.2 | Watch only | Mixed single RRG |
| MTUM | Tactical Growth / Momentum | 54.8 | Watch only | Positive single RRG |
| XLC | Communication Services / Growth | 53.0 | Watch only | Narrow cap-weight leadership |
| RSPU | Defensive / Utilities | 51.8 | Avoid | Mixed single RRG |
| XLP | Defensive / Staples | 50.5 | Avoid | Confirmed weakness |
| AIRR | Industrials / Reindustrialization | 48.8 | Avoid | Mixed single RRG |
| DBB | Industrial Metals / Real Assets | 48.8 | Avoid | Mixed single RRG |
04
Regime Expression Map
— structural regime and tactical route, translated into sleevesDEFENSE / DURATION
Current route still favors ballast
IEF · TLT · XLU · SGOV · TFLO · SH
The live constructor now qualifies six defensive/hedging starters for 28% total exposure. IEF, TLT and XLU lead at 65.5; SGOV, SH and TFLO score 62.5.
NARROW GROWTH / AI
Relative leadership improving
XLK · XLC · QQQ · SMH · MTUM
XLK, XLC and QQQ are Leading/NE; SMH and MTUM are Improving/NE. QQQ recovered its 13MA and the growth-leadership ratios remain positive, but breadth and credit still block clean broad-risk deployment.
REAL ASSETS / ENERGY
Structural incumbent weakening
XLE · XOP · RSPG · DBC · GLD
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership remains the confirmed memory regime at 69.3 support, but Stagflation now leads raw support at 71.7. XLE/XOP/RSPG remain RRG Leading but are rotating southwest.
BREADTH / SMALL CAPS
Member breadth repaired; relative breadth not yet
IWM · IWC · RSP
Member breadth jumped to 67.4% advancers, but IWM remains −1.83% below 13MA and IWM:SPY, IWC:SPY and RSP:SPY all remain below trend. Breadth quality improved before relative breadth confirmed.
VOLATILITY / RISK CONTROL
Sharp repair, not fully clear
VIX
VIX collapsed by 12.83 points of 13MA distance in one session and now sits only +3.0% above trend. That is a major improvement, but the upgrade trigger still requires VIX below its 13MA.
CREDIT / LIQUIDITY
Composite DETERIORATING
HYG:IEF · HYG:LQD · HYG ABS · HY OAS · UUP
Relative credit still confirms, but absolute credit remains weak: HYG is 78.61 versus a 79.15 13MA; HY OAS is 2.70 versus a 2.664 13MA. OAS narrowed 1 bp on the day but remains +5 bp over five days. UUP also moved marginally above 13MA.
The 09/11 tape is best described as a repair inside an unresolved regime: volatility and mega-cap growth improved quickly, but relative breadth and absolute credit did not confirm. The model therefore keeps the defensive macro route while the forward roadmap shifts aggressively toward tactical growth repair.
05
Transition / Scenario Matrix
— base / bull / bear pathsBULL UPGRADE
Clean Goldilocks / broader risk-on — Conditional
CONFIRMATION
UUP moves back below 13MA or stops rising; VIX moves below 13MA; RSP / IWM / IWC breadth confirms above 13MA; and the stack improves to 3/4 or 4/4 confirmation.
INVALIDATION
Credit stays weak, UUP remains firm, or XLK / SMH leadership fails.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATION
Only then let the memory-adjusted band migrate toward normal deployment and expand tactical growth/beta exposure.
BASE CASE
Chop / unresolved path — Highest current evidence
CONFIRMATION
The current low-confirmation stack persists into another saved run without credit, breadth and dollar alignment.
INVALIDATION
SPY / QQQ / MTUM roll back below 13MA while credit deteriorates and VIX re-expands, or conversely a broad multi-layer repair pushes the stack to 3/4.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATION
Keep exposure near the saved memory target or lower. Favor thesis-specific starters and avoid forcing a broad-beta sleeve.
BEAR FAILURE
Defensive Slowdown / risk-off deterioration — Conditional
CONFIRMATION
SPY / QQQ / MTUM turn negative versus 13MA; absolute/relative credit deteriorates while VIX rises; and growth-leadership ratios lose trend.
INVALIDATION
Price/MTUM/VIX repair holds and credit/dollar stop worsening.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATION
Cut tactical growth and beta first, use the lower side of exposure, and let cash / duration / hedges become the active position.
UPGRADE TRIGGERS
- UUP distance from 13MA turns negative
- VIX distance from 13MA turns negative
- IWM / IWC / RSP relative breadth confirms above 13MA
DOWNGRADE TRIGGERS
- QQQ distance from 13MA turns negative
- MTUM distance from 13MA turns negative
- HYG:IEF and HYG:LQD both roll below 13MA
Watch items: credit remains the main full-risk blocker; the dollar now adds a short-term headwind; the forward roadmap is improving faster than the live confirmation stack.
06Regime State Matrix— the full-stack read, layer by layerVIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Layer | Current State | Strength / Score | Trend | Confirmation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structural Memory Regime | Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership | 69.3 support | BULLISH | WEAKENING | Incumbent remains the confirmed historical regime but is below its 75.0 handoff trend. Stagflation / Inflation Shock leads raw support at 71.7, with no confirmed handoff yet. |
| Growth / Inflation Impulse | Reflation / Stagflation Transition — Inflation Up, Growth Near Boundary | +1.1 growth / +3.5 infl. | TRANSITION | LOW CONVICTION | Reflation / Cyclical Expansion is the highest weight at 27.7%, only 1.4 points ahead of Stagflation / Inflation Shock at 26.3%. |
| Current Macro Read | Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress | 73.0 conf · 14.0 raw gap | RISK-OFF | CLEAN WINNER | Deflationary Risk-Off scores 66.0 versus 52.0 for Stagflation, driven by credit weakness, SPY below trend and failing relative breadth. |
| RRG Market Expression | Mega-Cap Growth / AI Leadership | 68.0 rrg / 68.2 conf | NARROW RISK-ON | CONFLICTS | XLK, XLC and QQQ are Leading/NE while SMH and MTUM improve. The expression remains cap-weight concentrated rather than broadly confirmed. |
| Tactical Trajectory | Chop / No Edge | −2.7 score / 57.4 conf | MIXED / UNRESOLVED | CONFLICTS | QQQ/MTUM and VIX repaired sharply, but SPY/IWM, relative breadth, dollar and credit still prevent a clean directional vote. |
| Credit Condition | DETERIORATING — relative firm / absolute weak | Rel: HYG:IEF +0.649 · HYG:LQD +0.454 | DETERIORATING | ABSOLUTE WEAK | Relative credit remains above 13MA, but HYG absolute is below its 13MA and HY OAS is above its 13MA. OAS narrowed 1 bp on the day but remains +5 bp over five days. |
| Volatility Condition | Above 13MA, rapidly repairing | +3.000 dist13 | FALLING FAST | NOT YET BELOW TREND | VIX distance from 13MA improved by −12.827 in one session. The volatility gate is much better but still has not fully cleared. |
| Breadth Condition | Relative breadth below 13MA | adv 67.4% | DIVERGENT | MEMBER BREADTH STRONG | Member breadth is strong at 337 advancers versus 163 decliners, but IWM:SPY, IWC:SPY and RSP:SPY all remain below 13MA. |
| Growth Leadership | Above 13MA / Mildly improving | QQQ:SPY +0.314 · SMH:SPY +1.692 · XLK:SPY +1.318 | RELATIVE SUPPORT | QQQ BACK ABOVE 13MA | All three leadership ratios remain above trend and QQQ itself recovered slightly above 13MA, strengthening the tactical-growth repair case. |
| Dollar / Liquidity | Marginal short-term headwind | UUP dist13 +0.025 | FIRMING | CAPS CLEAN GOLDILOCKS | UUP moved fractionally above 13MA. This is not a broad dollar squeeze, but it is enough to remain an explicit upgrade blocker in the trajectory model. |
| Rate / Inflation Pressure | Yields / commodities elevated | TNX +4.058 · DBC:SPY +4.475 | PRESSURE | REAL-ASSET SUPPORT | Higher yields and persistent commodity relative strength keep the reflation/stagflation/real-asset complex relevant despite the growth squeeze. |
07Market Confirmation Heatmap— distance from 13MA, by categoryVIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Variable | Dist. from 13MA | 1D Δ | 3D Δ | 5D Δ | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE | |||||
| SPY | −0.257 | +0.824 | −0.156 | −0.677 | BELOW TREND, REPAIRING |
| QQQ | +0.057 | +0.775 | −0.587 | −0.696 | JUST ABOVE TREND |
| IWM | −1.830 | +0.630 | −1.233 | −1.503 | BELOW TREND |
| MTUM | +1.334 | +1.062 | −0.827 | +0.369 | ABOVE TREND, REPAIRING |
| VOLATILITY | |||||
| VIX | +3.000 | −12.827 | −0.783 | +7.014 | ABOVE TREND, SHARP COMPRESSION |
| RELATIVE CREDIT | |||||
| HYG:IEF | +0.649 | +0.098 | +0.430 | +0.418 | ABOVE TREND, IMPROVING |
| HYG:LQD | +0.454 | −0.014 | +0.385 | +0.302 | ABOVE TREND |
| ABSOLUTE CREDIT | |||||
| HYG ABS | ≈−0.68% | — | — | — | 78.61 BELOW 79.15 13MA |
| HY OAS | ≈+1.36% | −1 bp | — | +5 bp | 2.70 ABOVE 2.664 13MA |
| GROWTH LEADERSHIP | |||||
| QQQ:SPY | +0.314 | −0.053 | −0.432 | −0.018 | ABOVE TREND |
| SMH:SPY | +1.692 | +0.338 | −1.242 | +0.311 | ABOVE TREND, IMPROVING |
| XLK:SPY | +1.318 | +0.184 | −0.541 | +0.127 | ABOVE TREND, IMPROVING |
| BREADTH | |||||
| IWM:SPY | −1.575 | −0.183 | −1.078 | −0.831 | BELOW TREND |
| IWC:SPY | −1.639 | −0.215 | −1.384 | −1.449 | BELOW TREND |
| RSP:SPY | −1.391 | +0.210 | +0.041 | −0.291 | BELOW TREND, SOME REPAIR |
| DEFENSIVES | |||||
| XLU:SPY | −0.939 | −1.004 | −1.993 | −0.512 | BELOW TREND, WEAKENING |
| XLP:SPY | −1.410 | −0.094 | +0.243 | +0.323 | BELOW TREND |
| SDY:SPY | −1.552 | −0.098 | −0.045 | −0.123 | BELOW TREND |
| LIQUIDITY / RATES | |||||
| UUP | +0.025 | +0.113 | +0.201 | −0.151 | JUST ABOVE TREND / HEADWIND |
The heatmap shows a clear one-day repair in price and volatility, but not a full regime reset. QQQ and MTUM are back above trend and VIX compressed sharply; SPY/IWM and relative breadth remain below trend, UUP moved slightly above trend, and absolute credit remains weak.
08Growth / Inflation Regimes— forward weights, not certaintyVIEW MODEL DETAIL
GOLDILOCKS
23.6%
Disinflationary Expansion
REFLATION
27.7%
Cyclical Expansion
STAGFLATION
26.3%
Inflation Shock
DEFLATION
22.4%
Defensive Slowdown
The standalone growth/inflation prior shifted from the prior disinflationary mix toward an inflation-up transition. Reflation leads at 27.7% with Stagflation close behind at 26.3%; conviction is only 3.6%, so this remains a low-confidence boundary regime rather than a hard macro call.
09Memory Regime Trend — Beluga Overlay— regime trend flip vs. dominant-regime handoffVIEW MODEL DETAIL
CONFIRMED MEMORY REGIME
RegimeCommodity / Real-Asset Leadership
Memory Support69.3
Handoff Trend75.0
Dominance StateWEAKENING
Beluga Adaptive Pivot75.1
Beluga TrendBULLISH
Beluga Pivot Momentum0.4
Last Beluga FlipBULLISH
Last Flip Date2026-08-19
STRONGEST CHALLENGER
RegimeStagflation / Inflation Shock
Challenger Support71.7
Support Spread−2.4 incumbent
Saved Flip Progress0/2
Saved StatusWEAKENING
NEXT-SAVE PREVIEW: incumbent 65.3 vs Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair 70.5; challenger lead 5.2. Status: FLIP WATCH 1/2 IF SAVED. The preview also shows the incumbent would bear-flip while the tactical-growth challenger would bull-flip if current evidence persisted.
10Memory Support Leaderboard— the entire regime ecosystem, rankedVIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Regime | Memory Support | Handoff Trend | Beluga Pivot | Momentum | Beluga Trend | Confirmed | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stagflation / Inflation Shock | 74.8 | 68.5 | 4.0 | BULLISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress | 74.3 | 66.7 | 5.8 | BULLISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership | 75.0 | 75.1 | 0.4 | BULLISH | TRUE | Below handoff trend | |
| Mega-Cap Growth / AI Leadership | 62.1 | 60.8 | 1.2 | BULLISH | FALSE | Above handoff trend | |
| Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair | 54.1 | 59.3 | −1.7 | BEARISH | FALSE | Above handoff trend | |
| Chop / No Edge | 62.6 | 61.3 | 0.5 | BULLISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Deflation / Defensive Slowdown | 63.1 | 59.8 | 1.7 | BULLISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Reflation / Cyclical Expansion | 64.2 | 66.5 | −2.9 | BEARISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Defensive Broadening | 51.6 | 54.0 | −3.6 | BEARISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Broadening Recovery / Early-Cycle Rotation | 49.2 | 56.3 | −8.0 | BEARISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Goldilocks / Disinflationary Expansion | 43.6 | 47.8 | −1.0 | BEARISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend |
11Forward Regime Matrix— forward probability vs. memory supportVIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Regime | Forward Prob. | Current Evid. | Memory Prior | Transition Mom. | Macro Impulse | Raw Fwd. Score | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair | 99.7 | 62.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 78.6 | RISING | |
| Mega-Cap Growth / AI Leadership | 68.2 | 64.7 | 64.4 | 0.0 | 59.7 | RISING | |
| Stagflation / Inflation Shock | 60.4 | 71.7 | 32.2 | 65.8 | 59.2 | FALLING | |
| Deflation / Defensive Slowdown | 50.7 | 58.5 | 32.7 | 56.0 | 50.3 | FALLING | |
| Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership | 52.5 | 69.3 | 34.9 | 0.0 | 49.1 | FALLING | |
| Reflation / Cyclical Expansion | 48.9 | 58.0 | 21.7 | 69.2 | 48.8 | FALLING | |
| Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress | 48.4 | 71.2 | 38.9 | 0.0 | 48.7 | FALLING | |
| Chop / No Edge | 55.5 | 59.6 | 39.9 | 0.0 | 48.4 | FALLING | |
| Goldilocks / Disinflationary Expansion | 34.7 | 41.4 | 36.6 | 59.0 | 39.5 | FALLING | |
| Defensive Broadening | 37.8 | 45.4 | 25.2 | 0.0 | 34.0 | FALLING | |
| Broadening Recovery / Early-Cycle Rotation | 32.7 | 41.7 | 21.7 | 0.0 | 30.1 | FALLING |
12Regime Confirmation Stack— 1/4 conflict; macro fallback controls routingVIEW MODEL DETAIL
MANUAL THESIS
Stagflation / Inflation Shock
100.0
CONFLICTS / N/A
MACRO VARIABLES
Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress
73.0
CONFIRMS
RRG DOUBLE-CONFIRMATION
Mega-Cap Growth / AI Leadership
68.2
CONFLICTS / N/A
MACRO TRAJECTORY
Chop / No Edge
57.4
CONFLICTS / N/A
Stack result: REGIME CONFLICT — family: Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress — 1/4
There is no 3/4 majority. Macro remains the only confirming layer, so the active route stays Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress by high-confidence fallback rather than full-stack confirmation.
13Regime History Strip— no single day’s call in isolationVIEW MODEL DETAIL
2026-09-11
Route: Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress
Traj: Mixed / unresolved
Risk: 29.0
Target: 23
Emerging: Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
2026-09-10
Route: Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress
Traj: Risk deteriorating
Risk: 0.0
Target: 18
Emerging: Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
2026-09-09
Route: Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
Traj: Mixed / unresolved
Risk: 57.0
Target: 55
Emerging: Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress
2026-09-08
Route: Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
Traj: Mixed / unresolved
Risk: 65.0
Target: 70
Emerging: Stagflation / Inflation Shock
2026-09-04
Route: Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
Traj: Risk repair improving
Risk: 70.0
Target: 65
Emerging: Stagflation / Inflation Shock
2026-09-03
Route: Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership
Traj: Mild risk repair
Risk: 95.0
Target: 60
Emerging: Deflation / Defensive Slowdown
2026-09-02
Route: Reflation / Cyclical Expansion
Traj: Mixed / unresolved
Risk: 56.0
Target: 35
Emerging: Deflation / Defensive Slowdown
2026-09-01
Route: Deflation / Defensive Slowdown
Traj: Risk deteriorating
Risk: 5.0
Target: 10
Emerging: Deflation / Defensive Slowdown
2026-08-31
Route: Goldilocks / Disinflationary Expansion
Traj: Mixed / unresolved
Risk: 49.0
Target: 40
Emerging: Deflation / Defensive Slowdown
2026-08-28
Route: Reflation / Cyclical Expansion
Traj: Mild deterioration
Risk: 50.0
Target: 35
Emerging: Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership
INSTABILITY SCORE
65.0
PERSISTENCE SCORE
35.0
Caviar Cycle Regime Engine · v24_transition_roadmap_backward_compatible · Generated 2026-09-11T13:08:17 · All figures sourced directly from the 2026-09-11 Caviar Regime Dashboard Tear Sheet. Memory Support is a saved-run persistence measure, not a calibrated probability. Forward Probability reflects the roadmap’s forward regime stack. Credit composite combines relative credit confirmation with absolute HYG and HY OAS trend signals. Public-facing regime labels use Caviar family names rather than Quad nomenclature.