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REGIME MATRIX
HOW TO READ THIS PAGE
Structural = established regime / persistence
Tactical = near-term market condition
Forward = transition risk, not the current regime
Deployment = exposure earned by the combined evidence
01
Caviar Regime Read
— the answer first; model detail below
STRUCTURAL · WEEKS / MONTHS
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership
WEAKENING
79.0 support
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership remains the confirmed memory
regime and has recovered the raw support lead at 79.0 versus
Stagflation / Inflation Shock at 78.2. The incumbent is still
below its handoff trend, so the structural state remains
WEAKENING rather than re-confirmed.
TACTICAL · DAYS / WEEKS
Chop / No Edge
MIXED / UNRESOLVED
Trajectory −5.8 · 60.2 conf
Cap-weight growth is strengthening, but the broad tape is
deteriorating. SPY and IWM are below 13MA, VIX is 7.4%
above trend, and relative breadth rolled over even as QQQ,
MTUM and growth-leadership ratios remain above 13MA.
FORWARD · TRANSITION RISK
Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress
EMERGING
23.6%
The memory-aware roadmap now ranks Deflationary Risk-Off /
Credit Stress first at 23.6% with Moderate heuristic confidence
and starter permission. Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership is
second at 18.6%, while Mega-Cap Growth / AI remains a rising
15.8% counter-current.
DEPLOYMENT · PORTFOLIO POSTURE
55% Saved Target
SELECTIVE
Risk score 57.0
Raw risk capacity fell to 35–60%. Saved memory limits the
working band to 35–55%, while the raw portfolio constructor
still identifies a 60% tactical-growth route. Treat 55% as
the saved deployment ceiling until the stack or breadth
improves.
DESK INTERPRETATION
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership remains the structural
incumbent and has retaken a narrow raw-support lead, but its
dominance state is still WEAKENING. Tactically the market
is increasingly bifurcated: XLK is Leading and strengthening,
SMH and MTUM are Improving, and QQQ remains above its 13MA, yet
SPY is below trend, IWM is down to −1.77% from 13MA, VIX is
elevated, and member breadth collapsed to 19.6% advancers.
The RRG layer therefore flipped to
Mega-Cap Growth / AI Leadership even while the trajectory
and macro layers still vote Chop / No Edge. Forward,
Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress has become the top
emerging roadmap regime. Net: participate only through the narrow
leadership that is actually working, but respect the 55% saved
target and the growing breadth/volatility warning.
Why the models can disagree:
the RRG map is reading a narrow cap-weight growth rotation, while
breadth, volatility and the forward roadmap are deteriorating.
A 2/4 split means the market can support tactical leaders without
supporting broad-beta deployment.
02
Risk / Deployment
— what the evidence actually earns
MANUAL EXPOSURE
45–70%
MACRO EXPOSURE (PASTED)
0–40%
ACTIVE ROUTE EXPOSURE
45–70%
RRG EXPOSURE
75–100%
MACRO RISK OVERLAY
35–60%
RAW FINAL CAP
35–60%
MEMORY-ADJUSTED TARGET
35–55%
Exposure band:
SELECTIVE
— the raw cap is 35–60%, while the saved 09/09 memory state
records a 55% target / 35–55% band. The raw portfolio constructor
proposed 60% across MTUM, SMH and XLK, but saved memory keeps the
portfolio from immediately taking the full raw cap.
RISK CAPS
- VIX is above 13MA and elevated versus intermediate trend
- SPY remains below 13MA
- Cap-weight squeeze: index leadership with weak member participation
- Member breadth collapsed to 19.6% advancers
- Relative breadth is rolling over
RISK SUPPORTS
- HYG:IEF and HYG:LQD remain above 13MA
- UUP remains below 13MA; no short-term dollar headwind
- QQQ and MTUM remain above 13MA
- QQQ:SPY, SMH:SPY and XLK:SPY all remain above 13MA
- XLK is Leading/NE; SMH and MTUM are Improving/NE on RRG
57.0
RISK SCORE / 100
Saved target:
55%
Active routing remains Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
by manual fallback, but the macro risk overlay is now Yellow at
35–60%. The model has enough narrow growth leadership to deploy
selectively, not enough broad confirmation to treat the tape as
full risk-on.
Raw portfolio constructor:
60% TACTICAL GROWTH
· MTUM 27.0% · SMH 16.5% · XLK 16.5% · saved memory ceiling 55%.
03
Current Leadership Matrix
— RRG quadrant scanLEADING
XLK8 · NE
BETE6 · SW
XOP6 · SE
RSPG6 · SE
XLE6 · SE
TLT6 · SE
IMPROVING
SMH6 · NE
MTUM6 · NE
XLU6 · NE
RSPU6 · NE
IEF4 · SE
SPLV4 · SE
WEAKENING
QQQ4 · NE
RSPH2 · SW
XLV2 · SW
RSPC2 · SW
MGV2 · SW
IWD2 · SW
LAGGING
SPHB2 · NE
IWF2 · NE
RSPT1 · NW
IWP1 · NW
RSPN1 · NW
XLI1 · NW
The most important change is the cap-weight growth rotation:
XLK has moved into Leading/NE, while SMH and MTUM moved into
Improving/NE and QQQ advanced to Weakening/NE. Breadth remains
poor underneath: IWM, IWC, RSP, equal-weight tech and many
cyclicals remain Lagging.
| Ticker | Sleeve | Score | Action | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTUM | Tactical growth repair | 68.5 | Starter / watch | Positive single RRG |
| SMH | Tactical growth repair | 68.5 | Starter / watch | Positive single RRG |
| XLK | Tactical growth repair | 67.4 | Starter / watch | Narrow cap-weight leadership |
| RSPG | Energy / Real Assets | 57.8 | Watch only | Strong single RRG |
| TLT | Defensive / Ballast | 57.8 | Watch only | Strong single RRG |
| RSPU | Defensive / Utilities | 54.8 | Watch only | Positive single RRG |
| XLU | Defensive / Utilities | 54.8 | Watch only | Confirmed leadership |
| QQQ | Tactical growth repair | 54.6 | Avoid | Confirmed weakness |
| RSPR | Real Estate / Rate Sensitive | 51.8 | Avoid | Mixed single RRG |
| XLRE | Real Estate / Rate Sensitive | 51.8 | Avoid | Mixed / transition |
| XLF | Financials / Cyclical Value | 50.0 | Avoid | Mixed / transition |
| AIRR | Industrials / Reindustrialization | 48.8 | Avoid | Mixed single RRG |
| DBB | Industrial Metals / Real Assets | 48.8 | Avoid | Mixed single RRG |
| IWC | Breadth / Small Caps | 44.2 | Avoid | Weak single RRG |
| IWM | Breadth / Small Caps | 44.2 | Avoid | Weak single RRG |
04
Regime Expression Map
— structural regime and tactical route, translated into sleeves
TACTICAL GROWTH / AI
Narrow leadership strengthening
XLK · MTUM · SMH · QQQ
XLK is Leading/NE; MTUM and SMH are Improving/NE; QQQ is
Weakening but rotating NE. The route is real, but it is
cap-weight concentrated rather than broad.
UTILITIES / DEFENSIVE BETA
Still improving
XLU · RSPU
Both remain Improving/NE and XLU retains Confirmed leadership,
keeping a defensive bid alive beneath the growth rotation.
DURATION
Firm, momentum softening
TLT · IEF
TLT remains Leading and IEF Improving, but both rotate
southeast / weakening momentum. Forward risk-off scoring
still favors duration as a hedge sleeve.
REAL ASSETS / ENERGY
Leading, but losing momentum
XLE · XOP · RSPG · DBC
Energy remains in Leading and commodities remain strong, but
XLE/XOP/RSPG all rotate southeast. Structural real-asset memory
recovered to 79.0 but remains WEAKENING.
BREADTH / SMALL CAPS
Primary risk blocker
IWM · IWC · RSP
All three relative-breadth ratios are below 13MA and rolling
over; member breadth is only 19.6% advancers. This is the
clearest reason the growth tape is not a clean Goldilocks signal.
FINANCIALS / CYCLICALS
Selective / fading
XLF · RSPF · XLI
XLF remains Leading but is deteriorating, while RSPF and XLI
are Lagging. Cyclical breadth is not confirming the cap-weight
growth move.
The cross-current is sharper than yesterday: cap-weight growth is
strengthening at the same time as breadth, cyclicals and volatility
worsen. That is why RRG can read Mega-Cap Growth / AI while the
forward roadmap simultaneously elevates Deflationary Risk-Off /
Credit Stress.
05
Transition / Scenario Matrix
— base / bull / bear paths
BULL UPGRADE
Clean Goldilocks / broader risk-on — Conditional
CONFIRMATION
Credit trajectory stabilizes; VIX falls back below 13MA;
RSP / IWM / IWC breadth confirms above 13MA; regime stack
improves to 3/4 or 4/4.
INVALIDATION
Credit weakens, breadth keeps rolling over, or XLK / SMH
leadership fails.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATION
Only then migrate the saved target toward the upper raw band
and broaden beyond narrow cap-weight growth.
BASE CASE
Chop / unresolved path — Highest current evidence
CONFIRMATION
The 2/4 Chop stack persists while QQQ/MTUM hold trend but
SPY/breadth remain weak.
INVALIDATION
Either breadth/VIX repair enough for a bull upgrade, or
QQQ/MTUM and credit break down enough for a bear failure.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATION
Stay selective near the saved target; use narrow leaders
rather than broad beta and avoid chasing the raw 60% cap
automatically.
BEAR FAILURE
Defensive Slowdown / risk-off deterioration — Conditional
CONFIRMATION
QQQ and MTUM lose 13MA; HYG:IEF and HYG:LQD both roll below
trend; QQQ:SPY / SMH:SPY / XLK:SPY lose confirmation.
INVALIDATION
VIX cools, breadth stabilizes and cap-weight growth continues
to broaden.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATION
Cut tactical growth and beta first, move toward the lower side
of the band, and let cash / duration become the active position.
UPGRADE TRIGGERS
- Credit trajectory stops rolling over and stabilizes
- VIX distance from 13MA turns negative
- IWM / IWC / RSP relative breadth confirms above 13MA
DOWNGRADE TRIGGERS
- QQQ distance from 13MA turns negative
- MTUM distance from 13MA turns negative
- HYG:IEF and HYG:LQD both roll below 13MA
Watch items: cap-weight squeeze remains active; VIX is now elevated;
breadth is rolling over; 2/4 stack still means route lean only,
not high-conviction.
06 Regime State Matrix — the full-stack read, layer by layer VIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Layer | Current State | Strength / Score | Trend | Confirmation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structural Memory Regime | Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership | 79.0 support | BULLISH | WEAKENING | Incumbent recovered the raw support lead versus Stagflation 78.2, but remains below its 79.5 handoff trend. |
| Growth / Inflation Impulse | Deflation / Goldilocks Transition — Inflation Down, Growth Near Boundary | −1.3 growth / −9.2 infl. | TRANSITION | LOW CONVICTION | Deflation / Defensive Slowdown remains the highest weight at 31.0%, only narrowly ahead of Goldilocks at 29.3%. |
| Current Macro Read | Chop / No Edge | 58.0 conf · 0.0 raw gap | MIXED | CONFIRMS | Mega-Cap Growth / AI and Deflationary Risk-Off tie at 62.0 raw macro score, forcing the macro layer to remain mixed. |
| RRG Market Expression | Mega-Cap Growth / AI Leadership | 56.4 rrg / 60.6 conf | RISK-ON / NARROW | CONFLICTS | XLK is Leading/NE, SMH and MTUM are Improving/NE, but equal-weight participation remains poor. |
| Tactical Trajectory | Chop / No Edge | −5.8 score / 60.2 conf | MIXED / UNRESOLVED | CONFIRMS | Growth leadership is positive, but SPY/IWM weakness, elevated VIX and rolling breadth prevent a directional upgrade. |
| Credit Condition | Above 13MA / Mildly Rolling Over | HYG:IEF +0.280 · HYG:LQD +0.063 | MIXED | RISK-SUPPORTIVE | Credit levels still confirm risk, but momentum is not strong enough to offset the breadth/volatility warning. |
| Volatility Condition | Above 13MA / Elevated | +7.398 dist13 | RISING | CAPS RISK | VIX is 7.4% above its 13MA and elevated versus the intermediate trend, materially tightening the risk overlay. |
| Breadth Condition | Relative breadth below 13MA | adv 19.6% | ROLLING OVER | WEAK | IWM:SPY, IWC:SPY and RSP:SPY are all below trend and deteriorating; member breadth is 98 advancers vs 402 decliners. |
| Growth Leadership | Above 13MA / Improving | QQQ:SPY +0.860 · SMH:SPY +3.341 · XLK:SPY +2.153 | IMPROVING | TACTICAL SUPPORT | All three growth-leadership ratios are above 13MA and improving, consistent with the RRG move into cap-weight growth. |
| Dollar / Liquidity | No short-term headwind | UUP dist13 −0.263 | SOFTENING | SUPPORTS RISK | UUP remains below its 13MA and the dollar-liquidity headwind flag remains False. |
| Rate / Inflation Pressure | Yields / commodities elevated | TNX 4.84 · DBC +4.40% vs 13MA | PRESSURE | REAL-ASSET SUPPORT | Higher yields and strong commodity ratios keep the real-asset / stagflation complex relevant even as cap-weight growth strengthens. |
07 Market Confirmation Heatmap — distance from 13MA, by category VIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Variable | Dist. from 13MA | 1D Δ | 3D Δ | 5D Δ | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE | |||||
| SPY | −0.557 | −0.456 | −0.977 | −0.353 | BELOW TREND, DETERIORATING |
| QQQ | +0.298 | −0.346 | −0.455 | +1.023 | ABOVE TREND, MIXED |
| IWM | −1.774 | −1.177 | −1.447 | −0.439 | BELOW TREND, DETERIORATING |
| MTUM | +2.266 | +0.105 | +1.301 | +4.627 | ABOVE TREND, CONFIRMING |
| VOLATILITY | |||||
| VIX | +7.398 | +3.615 | +11.412 | +8.087 | ABOVE TREND, ELEVATED |
| CREDIT | |||||
| HYG:IEF | +0.280 | +0.061 | +0.049 | −0.021 | ABOVE TREND, MIXED |
| HYG:LQD | +0.063 | −0.006 | −0.089 | −0.135 | ABOVE TREND, ROLLING OVER |
| GROWTH LEADERSHIP | |||||
| QQQ:SPY | +0.860 | +0.114 | +0.528 | +1.380 | ABOVE TREND, CONFIRMING |
| SMH:SPY | +3.341 | +0.407 | +1.960 | +4.898 | ABOVE TREND, CONFIRMING |
| XLK:SPY | +2.153 | +0.294 | +0.962 | +2.441 | ABOVE TREND, CONFIRMING |
| BREADTH | |||||
| IWM:SPY | −1.223 | −0.726 | −0.479 | −0.091 | BELOW TREND, ROLLING OVER |
| IWC:SPY | −1.179 | −0.924 | −0.989 | −0.302 | BELOW TREND, ROLLING OVER |
| RSP:SPY | −1.731 | −0.299 | −0.631 | −1.015 | BELOW TREND, DETERIORATING |
| DEFENSIVES | |||||
| XLU:SPY | +0.498 | −0.556 | +0.925 | +1.623 | ABOVE TREND, HOLDING |
| XLP:SPY | −2.141 | −0.488 | −0.408 | −2.095 | BELOW TREND, DETERIORATING |
| SDY:SPY | −1.737 | −0.230 | −0.308 | −1.025 | BELOW TREND, DETERIORATING |
| LIQUIDITY / RATES | |||||
| UUP | −0.263 | −0.087 | −0.439 | −0.718 | BELOW TREND, SOFTENING |
The 09/09 trajectory is a classic cap-weight squeeze: growth
leadership keeps improving while SPY, small caps and breadth
deteriorate and VIX rises sharply. That is a narrow-risk signal,
not broad confirmation.
08 Growth / Inflation Regimes — forward weights, not certainty VIEW MODEL DETAIL
GOLDILOCKS
29.3%
Disinflationary Expansion
REFLATION
19.3%
Cyclical Expansion
STAGFLATION
20.4%
Inflation Shock
DEFLATION
31.0%
Defensive Slowdown
The standalone growth/inflation prior remains unchanged:
Deflation / Defensive Slowdown (31.0%) only narrowly leads
Goldilocks / Disinflationary Expansion (29.3%). It remains
a low-conviction transition prior rather than a forced call.
09 Memory Regime Trend — Beluga Overlay — regime trend flip vs. dominant-regime handoff VIEW MODEL DETAIL
CONFIRMED MEMORY REGIME
Regime
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership
Memory Support
79.0
Handoff Trend
79.5
Dominance State
WEAKENING
Beluga Adaptive Pivot
75.6
Beluga Trend
BULLISH
Beluga Pivot Momentum
2.1
Last Beluga Flip
BULLISH
Last Flip Date
2026-08-19
STRONGEST CHALLENGER
Regime
Stagflation / Inflation Shock
Challenger Support
78.2
Support Spread
+0.8 incumbent
Saved Flip Progress
0/2
Saved Status
WEAKENING
NEXT-SAVE PREVIEW:
incumbent 80.5 vs Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress 80.9;
challenger lead 0.4. Status: NO CONFIRMED FLIP, flip progress
0/2. This is a preview of what another save would do—not an
unsaved current run.
10 Memory Support Leaderboard — the entire regime ecosystem, ranked VIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Regime | Memory Support | Handoff Trend | Beluga Pivot | Momentum | Beluga Trend | Confirmed | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership | 79.5 | 75.6 | 2.1 | BULLISH | TRUE | Below handoff trend | |
| Stagflation / Inflation Shock | 77.3 | 67.0 | 4.1 | BULLISH | FALSE | Above handoff trend | |
| Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress | 75.1 | 64.0 | 4.1 | BULLISH | FALSE | Above handoff trend | |
| Reflation / Cyclical Expansion | 70.0 | 69.7 | -0.1 | BEARISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Deflation / Defensive Slowdown | 67.8 | 59.9 | 2.8 | BULLISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Chop / No Edge | 65.7 | 61.8 | 1.6 | BULLISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Mega-Cap Growth / AI Leadership | 58.9 | 59.9 | -3.3 | BEARISH | FALSE | Above handoff trend | |
| Defensive Broadening | 58.1 | 57.3 | 0.4 | BULLISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Broadening Recovery / Early-Cycle Rotation | 57.2 | 62.3 | -3.1 | BEARISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend | |
| Goldilocks / Disinflationary Expansion | 45.2 | 48.5 | -3.3 | BEARISH | FALSE | Above handoff trend | |
| Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair | 48.1 | 59.0 | -7.8 | BEARISH | FALSE | Below handoff trend |
11 Forward Regime Matrix — forward probability vs. memory support VIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Regime | Forward Prob. | Current Evid. | Memory Prior | Transition Mom. | Macro Impulse | Raw Fwd. Score | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress | 93.2 | 78.0 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 73.4 | RISING | |
| Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership | 87.4 | 79.0 | 56.1 | 0.0 | 70.5 | RISING | |
| Mega-Cap Growth / AI Leadership | 78.1 | 64.5 | 91.0 | 0.0 | 68.5 | RISING | |
| Stagflation / Inflation Shock | 70.5 | 78.2 | 48.2 | 51.0 | 66.8 | STABLE | |
| Reflation / Cyclical Expansion | 57.1 | 69.7 | 53.2 | 48.2 | 59.3 | STABLE | |
| Deflation / Defensive Slowdown | 56.6 | 65.3 | 36.2 | 77.5 | 57.6 | FALLING | |
| Goldilocks / Disinflationary Expansion | 54.4 | 47.9 | 69.3 | 73.2 | 57.0 | RISING | |
| Chop / No Edge | 61.4 | 64.7 | 47.6 | 0.0 | 53.7 | STABLE | |
| Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair | 45.6 | 44.6 | 57.7 | 0.0 | 42.9 | RISING | |
| Broadening Recovery / Early-Cycle Rotation | 36.3 | 51.9 | 36.6 | 0.0 | 37.4 | FALLING | |
| Defensive Broadening | 36.0 | 53.2 | 33.7 | 0.0 | 37.2 | FALLING |
12 Regime Confirmation Stack — 2/4 is a lean, not confirmation VIEW MODEL DETAIL
MANUAL THESIS
Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
100.0
CONFLICTS / N/A
MACRO VARIABLES
Chop / No Edge
58.0
CONFIRMS
RRG DOUBLE-CONFIRMATION
Mega-Cap Growth / AI Leadership
60.6
CONFLICTS / N/A
MACRO TRAJECTORY
Chop / No Edge
60.2
CONFIRMS
Stack result:
2/4 LEAN / SPLIT
— family:
Chop / No Edge
—
LEAN ONLY
No 3/4 majority and macro / trajectory confidence is not high
enough to override the thesis. Active routing remains
Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair by manual fallback.
13 Regime History Strip — no single day’s call in isolation VIEW MODEL DETAIL
2026-09-09
Route:
Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
Traj:
Mixed / unresolved
Risk:
57.0
Target:
55
Emerging:
Deflationary Risk-Off / Credit Stress
2026-09-08
Route:
Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
Traj:
Mixed / unresolved
Risk:
65.0
Target:
70
Emerging:
Stagflation / Inflation Shock
2026-09-04
Route:
Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair
Traj:
Risk repair improving
Risk:
70.0
Target:
65
Emerging:
Stagflation / Inflation Shock
2026-09-03
Route:
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership
Traj:
Mild risk repair
Risk:
95.0
Target:
60
Emerging:
Deflation / Defensive Slowdown
2026-09-02
Route:
Reflation / Cyclical Expansion
Traj:
Mixed / unresolved
Risk:
56.0
Target:
35
Emerging:
Deflation / Defensive Slowdown
2026-09-01
Route:
Deflation / Defensive Slowdown
Traj:
Risk deteriorating
Risk:
5.0
Target:
10
Emerging:
Deflation / Defensive Slowdown
2026-08-31
Route:
Goldilocks / Disinflationary Expansion
Traj:
Mixed / unresolved
Risk:
49.0
Target:
40
Emerging:
Deflation / Defensive Slowdown
2026-08-28
Route:
Reflation / Cyclical Expansion
Traj:
Mild deterioration
Risk:
50.0
Target:
35
Emerging:
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership
2026-08-27
Route:
Goldilocks / Disinflationary Expansion
Traj:
Mild risk repair
Risk:
70.0
Target:
55
Emerging:
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership
2026-08-26
Route:
Reflation / Cyclical Expansion
Traj:
Mild deterioration
Risk:
38.0
Target:
20
Emerging:
Commodity / Real-Asset Leadership
INSTABILITY SCORE
73.3
PERSISTENCE SCORE
26.7
Caviar Cycle Regime Engine ·
v24_transition_roadmap_backward_compatible ·
Generated 2026-09-09T13:06:31 ·
All figures sourced directly from the 2026-09-09 Caviar Regime
Dashboard Tear Sheet. Memory Support is a saved-run persistence
measure, not a calibrated probability. Forward Probability reflects
the roadmap’s forward regime stack.
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